The Vibe Standings: NFL Week 4 Recap and Week 5 Preview

The NFL should keep a second set of standings. Call them the vibe standings, updated every Monday based on how a fan base sounds on the drive home.

In the real standings, the Los Angeles Rams and the Green Bay Packers are the same team. Both are 2-2. Both won on Sunday. In the vibe standings, one fan base is pricing out February flights and the other is yelling at a sports radio host in Appleton. I think that’s hilarious.

The Rams were down 10 in Philadelphia in the fourth quarter. ESPN’s win probability had them at about 3 percent, which is roughly the odds of a Packers fan describing Sunday as relaxing. Then Nick Sirianni passed on a chip-shot field goal that would have made it 23-10, the Eagles couldn’t punch it in, and Kyren Williams scored twice in the final four minutes. Rams 24, Eagles 20.

Philadelphia went 0-for-12 on third down and finished with 68 net passing yards. Once the Rams’ offense finally got going, it looked like the team everybody picked to win the Super Bowl in August: a runaway train. I’m not convinced a building would have stopped it.

The Packers beat Tampa Bay 17-14 and spent the fourth quarter trying to give it back. Kaleb Johnson fumbled inside the Bucs’ 5. Jordan Love threw an interception. The defense held up against an undrafted rookie quarterback making his first NFL start, which is the kind of sentence that counts as good news in Green Bay right now. They also lost linebacker Edgerrin Cooper, maybe their best defender, to a torn Achilles after he’d racked up nine tackles, a sack and an interception in one half. Add a run game that ranks last in the league and a Micah Parsons who still hasn’t played this season, and you understand the radio calls.

So one team won and its fans are miserable, and the other needed a miracle to win and its fans are ready to party. Some of that is injuries. Some of it is that one team came back from the dead while the other nearly died against a rookie.

Week 4 recap

Panthers 32, Lions 26. The Carolina offense is for real. Nobody said the Detroit defense was going to be good this year, and somehow it’s worse than that. The Lions came in allowing a league-worst 31.7 points per game, and that secondary is horrible. Bryce Young tore it apart: 29 of 41, 329 yards, two touchdowns, no picks. Both touchdowns went to Tetairoa McMillan, who caught 14 balls for a career-high 192 yards. Bryce Young is legit, and he and McMillan are clearly on the same page, which is funny, because their coach admitted the two had trouble connecting in practice this week. Maybe skip practice.

Falcons 45, Saints 24. Michael Penix Jr. and that Atlanta run game are putting up points you could sell wholesale at Costco. Bijan Robinson ran for 145 yards and two scores, Brian Robinson Jr. ran for three more, and the Robinson family (no relation, as far as I know) combined for five rushing touchdowns, tying a franchise record. That came against a Saints team I think is good; Minnesota is 4-0 and only giving New Orleans about two points this weekend. The Falcons are underrated. They started Cooper Rush the first two weeks, with Penix still working back from his knee and Tua Tagovailoa hurt, and lost both. With Penix back, the offense looks night and day better: two wins, 80 points.

Chiefs 30, Raiders 27. I really wanted the Chiefs to lose this one. How often do you get to see the Raiders at 4-0? Instead Kenneth Walker III ran for 177 yards and scored twice in 19 seconds of the fourth quarter, with a Raiders fumble on the kickoff in between. That’s the game. The Raiders stumbled, and the Chiefs took their chance. Kirk Cousins threw for 365 yards in the loss, and Kansas City heads into its bye at 4-0.

Cowboys 34, Texans 30. Houston is 0-4, and it’s surprising, because that defense is good. For weeks the question was whether C.J. Stroud could play average. He played better than average. He played good: 21 of 31, 347 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions. The Texans led 30-27 with under three minutes left and still lost on a Dak Prescott touchdown pass to CeeDee Lamb with 40 seconds to go. When your defense is the strength, you lean on it, and sometimes it lets you down. It happened in Week 1 against Buffalo, too, when the Bills drove 96 yards for the winner.

Jaguars 22, Bengals 17. Cincinnati was a small home favorite, and I looked at that line and immediately thought Jacksonville was winning this game. The Jags were phenomenal. Trevor Lawrence went 18 of 23 and finally beat Joe Burrow on his fourth try. The defense isn’t a top-three unit, but it’s definitely top 10, you don’t take the top off it, and it gets stops: two interceptions, and Chase Brown tackled a yard short on fourth down in the final minute. Then Lawrence slings it and the offense scores. It’s as simple as that, and it has the Jags at 3-1.

Patriots 29, Bills 26. Great bounce-back game for Drake Maye, who had a lot of questions around him. He shook off two first-half turnovers, threw three touchdowns and won it with 1:50 left on Efton Chism III’s one-handed grab, against a Buffalo team that came in undefeated. New England’s 29 offensive points matched what it scored in its first three games combined. After last year’s easy schedule, the questions about what this team could do against good opponents were starting to loom over the whole organization. Sunday answered them. They just needed to bounce back a little.

Bears 23, Jets 12. With Caleb Williams out, you knew you weren’t getting an absolute monstrosity of points from Tyson Bagent in his first start since 2023. You got control instead. Kyle Monangai ran for 146 yards and two scores, and Chicago held the ball for almost 43 minutes. The Bears got the win they needed. The Jets are a little banged up, but I still think they’re feisty, and they can still surprise people.

Browns 27, Steelers 24 (Thursday). Deshaun Watson put up a good performance. He threw for 181 yards in the first half, his most in any first half since he got to Cleveland, and led a go-ahead fourth-quarter drive for the third straight week, setting up Andre Szmyt’s 56-yard winner with 10 seconds left. If he keeps playing like that, the trade and the contract might not go down as the worst in NFL history, which would be great for the Browns. Even the fans gave him a little love. For the record, I don’t think Deshaun Watson is that great of a person. But this team could be interesting. On the other side, Aaron Rodgers was good (299 yards, three touchdowns, a game-tying drive in the final two minutes), and the Steelers defense let him down again.

Colts 30, Commanders 13 (London). Marcus Mariota went down after two drives, and in came Athan Kaliakmanis: seventh-round rookie, Greek Freak number two, Rutgers legend. Unfortunately, Washington got dominated anyway. This was vintage Jonathan Taylor in London, with two touchdowns, a tea-sipping end zone celebration and, per the Colts, the record for most rushing yards in NFL international games. I’m a Wisconsin guy, so I like him a little more than you do, but he’s so freaking good. He’s an old-fashioned back who gets stuff done. There are questions about whether the Colts overpaid Alec Pierce, and Daniel Jones is serviceable, so Taylor gets the ball most of the time, and he still goes crazy. It’s awesome to watch.

Ravens 24, Titans 18. After getting upset by the Saints a couple weeks ago, Baltimore is handling business. It would be really cool to see Lamar get his swagger back. He threw two touchdowns in the first half, then rolled his ankle on the last play before halftime with the Ravens up 24-7. More on that below.

Seahawks 30, Chargers 23. The Chargers are a dumpster fire. Justin Herbert is a good quarterback, they’ve got Jim Harbaugh, and it’s bad over there. They’re not doing the little things right, and on the big things they’re crapping the bed: three Herbert turnovers, 16 penalties and an 0-4 start. Come on, guys. They’ll still win some games, but with what that defense is giving up, it’s hard to see a playoff spot at this rate. It’s a shame. Seattle’s defense won’t be as good as last year’s Super Bowl group, and it’s still super good; it forced four turnovers. The offense just handles business and wears you down (30-plus points in all four games), and Jaxon Smith-Njigba is unguardable. He came into Sunday with 405 yards and six touchdowns in three games.

49ers 24, Broncos 14. Brock Purdy didn’t have his best game, and it was 3-3 at halftime. Then he threw two second-half touchdowns, including a 56-yarder to George Kittle to put it away. He’s still really good. He’s my MVP. San Francisco is 4-0.

Also: Vikings 15, Dolphins 10 (Minnesota is 4-0 with its offensive struggles intact). Giants 36, Cardinals 24.

Week 5 preview

Thursday: Buccaneers 24, Cowboys 16. I had this one as a Dallas blowout. Tampa Bay was 0-4, starting an undrafted rookie in Jalon Daniels with Baker Mayfield’s thumb still healing, and the books had the Cowboys by 9.5. Instead the Bucs ran all over them. Bucky Irving carried 21 times for 165 yards and two touchdowns, Daniels went 19 of 25 for his first NFL win, and Dak Prescott threw two interceptions, the second one sealing it. I got that one wrong, and I’m telling you now so nobody has to dig it up in the comments. Tampa Bay is 1-4, and the Cowboys have some explaining to do.

Eagles vs. Jaguars (London). The Eagles need to bounce back, but that Jags team is good, man. Jacksonville is favored by close to a touchdown depending on where you look, and honestly, that’s the result I would expect. Philadelphia is banged up all over the offense and has lost two straight.

Bengals at Dolphins. Miami can’t catch a break. The Dolphins have one of the lowest-scoring offenses in football and just lost a 15-10 game.

Browns at Jets. You look down and suddenly the Browns are 3-1. What the heck? Can they get to 4-1? A lot of fan bases went into this season thinking, well, at least we won’t be worse than the Browns. You’re wrong. Got to stay on your toes in the NFL.

Texans at Titans. Two 0-4 teams. One of them gets a win. I expect it to be the Texans. The Titans look like an absolute disaster, and this is a get-right week for Houston. If you don’t win this game, there are serious questions about your season, and maybe about whether you’re just playing for a draft pick. Then again, you can still make the playoffs. Don’t give up.

Raiders at Patriots. I believe the Raiders win this game. Kirk looks great this season. Vintage Kirk. I love to see it.

Colts at Steelers. Honestly, give me the Steelers. Let’s get a vintage A-Rod game-winning drive. Would love to see it. Pittsburgh is a 2.5-point favorite.

Vikings at Saints. The Saints are feisty and good, and Tyler Shough doesn’t get the credit he deserves; he threw for 286 yards on Monday night. That Minnesota offense is bad, and the defense keeps them in games. Maybe the blitz-blitz-blitz Brian Flores defense gets a second-year quarterback a little rattled and gets it done again.

Bears at Packers. The league flexed this one out of the late-afternoon window to noon Central, which is the NFL politely telling one of its oldest rivalries that it isn’t the main event this week. Honestly, that’s fair. These are two dinged-up teams: Chicago has been playing without Caleb Williams, and Green Bay just lost Cooper for the year and still hasn’t had Parsons. It’ll still be a good game at Lambeau.

49ers at Seahawks. This is the game that took Bears-Packers’ national window, and it should have. Brock Purdy has been playing like an MVP. Even the 49ers are a little dinged up, and the Seahawks are the defending champs and still good. I expect this to be a must-watch game.

Broncos at Chargers, Lions at Cardinals, Giants at Commanders. Denver visits a Chargers team that badly needs a win before 0-4 turns into 0-5. Detroit gets a chance to fix that secondary in the desert. Washington is expected to get Jayden Daniels back against a Giants team that currently leads the NFC East.

Sunday night: Ravens at Falcons. The Falcons have been on a roll, and I like them to keep rolling and win this game. The betting people should know the number has been sliding all week: Baltimore opened as a six-point road favorite, and that’s shrunk to a field goal or less with Lamar Jackson’s ankle in question.

Monday night: Bills at Rams. Between 49ers-Seahawks and this, we get two nights of great football. I expect the Bills to win. I think we get Superman Josh Allen. But I could be wrong, because that Rams team is really good.

On bye: Panthers, Chiefs.

The vibe standings update Monday night, right around the time Bills fans and Rams fans find out which of them gets to be insufferable for a week.